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The purpose of the dating value preservation: avoid price risk.

The basic economic functions of the futures market are the management mechanism of providing price risks. In order to avoid price risks, the most commonly used method is to preserve the duration. The basic purpose of futures transactions is to transfer the risk of producers and users to speculators (futures dealers). When spot vendors use the futures market to offset the reverse exercise of prices in the spot market, this process is called setting period preservation.

has also translated "hedge transactions". Its basic approach is to buy or sell the equivalent number of transactions with the spot market, but the product futures contract with the opposite position of the transaction, in order to use the same futures contract to sell or buy the same futures contract, settle the position, settle the futures futures, clear the futures futures The profit or loss brought by the transaction is used to compensate or offset the actual price risk or interest brought by the change in the price of the spot market, so that the economic benefits of traders stabilize at a certain level.
In from the entire process of production, processing, storage to sales, commodity prices have always fluctuated, and the trend of changes is difficult to predict. Therefore, due to the price of commodity production and circulation process The risk brought by fluctuations. Therefore, no matter which one -link economic activity participants are, setting value preservation is a method that can effectively protect its own economic interests.

The basic principle of price risk to avoid price risk is:

First, the price of the period in the future of the futures transaction will not be completely consistent , But the trend of changes is basically the same. That is, when the spot price of specific products tends to rise, the futures price will also rise, and vice versa. This is because although the futures market and the spot market are different markets that separate their own separation, for specific products, its futures prices are the same as the main factors of the spot price. In this way, the rise and fall of the spot market price will also affect the rise and fall of the futures market price. The hedging person can achieve the function of value preservation by doing the opposite of the spot market in the futures market, so that the price stabilizes at a target level.

Secondly, the spot price and futures price not only change the same trend, but also, when the contract period expires, the two will be roughly equal or united. This is because the futures price is usually higher than the spot price. In the futures price, it contains all the costs stored in this product until the delivery date. When the contract is close to the delivery day, these expenses will gradually decrease or even disappear. The decisive factor of the price is almost the same. This is the principle of market trends in the futures market and the spot market.

of course, the futures market is different from the independent market that is different from the spot market. Coupled with the specified trading units in the futures market, the number of two market operations is often incomparable, which means that the hedging person may obtain additional profits or losses during the sales profit and loss, so that his transaction behavior still still makes his trading behavior still still It has certain risks. Therefore, it is not a one -and -for example.

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waffle jewelry wholesale Soy price has begun to fall from the beginning of July with the decline in crude oil and the rise of the US dollar index, especially with the comprehensive outbreak of the financial crisis, the price of soybeans after the National Day is a significant decline. The 5241 yuan/ton fell to the minimum 3081 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41%, which is a great impact on the production, processing or trading companies of soybeans. At the same time as the loss, it also made enterprises recognize the importance of avoiding risks to the enterprise. Therefore, it is important for enterprises to preserve the hedging period.

. The concept and principles of setting value preservation

Concepts: The hedging is the commodity futures that buy or sell in the futures market as the amount of spot but the opposite transaction direction. The contract is expected to compensate the actual losses caused by selling or buying futures contracts at a certain time through selling or buying futures contracts. In other words, the hedging of the setting period is the futures trading behavior of avoiding the risk of spot price.

The principle: Although the spot market and futures market are two independent markets, because the futures price and spot price of a certain product are in the same market environment, they will be affected by the same economic factors. And restrictions, therefore, the price changes in the two markets are the same. In addition, the delivery system for futures transactions ensures that the price of the spot market and the futures market is approaching the futures. The hedging preservation is the use of the price relationship in these two markets to buy and sell in the opposite direction of the futures market and the spot market. While obtaining a loss in a market, the result of the profitability of another market is to achieve locking in production and operation costs the goal of.

. The buying set of soybean processing enterprises

buying the dated value preservation refers to the preservation of recharge in the futures market. The number of goods bought is equal, and the delivery date of the delivery date is also the same or similar. Then, when the hedging person actually bought the spot product in the spot market, it is used or before and after, and then hedge in the futures market. Trading, which is then realized to buy spot value in the spot market.

. Example:

I assuming that on May 15, 2008, a soybean oil processing company learned that the spot price of soybeans was 4900 yuan/ton. It is expected that the company's inventory will be on June 10th. It will be reduced to the low point and need to make up 500 tons. Enterprises are worried that prices will rise by June. Therefore, the soybean oil processing enterprise decided to conduct soybean futures transactions on the Dalian Commodity Exchange on May 15. Therefore, on May 15th, buy a 50 -handed soybean 0807 contract for 4700 yuan/ton price, and establish a futures position of 50 hands. By June 10, the company bought soybeans at the spot market at 5,100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures market ZN0901 sells liquidation at a price of 4900 yuan/ton.

The transaction status as shown in Table:

Stock market
Futures market

Yuan/ton
Buy a 50 -handed soybean 0807 contract, the price is 4700 yuan/ton

June 10
bought 500 tons of soybeans, the price of the spot is 5100 yuan/ton
sells 50-handed soybean 0807 contract liquidation, the price is 4900 yuan/ton

results
loss-(5100-4900)*500 = 100,000 yuan
Profit (4900-4700)*500 = 100,000 yuan

profit and loss status = profitability in the futures market-losses in the spot market = 330,000-33 million = 0

It can be seen that although the spot prices have risen significantly, the risk of rising raw material prices can be effectively avoided by the setting period in the futures market. A complete buying set of period preservation involves two futures transactions. The first stroke is to buy futures contracts, and the second stroke sells for spot in the spot market, sells futures contracts in the futures market Bad.

. Analysis of the recent trend of soybeans

1, fundamental analysis

From global data, the US Department of Agriculture is expected to 08/09 Global soybean The output was 2394.3 billion tons, an increase of 18.74 million tons over the previous year, and the demand was 2391.9 billion tons, an increase of 6.07 million tons over the previous year, and the production increase exceeded demand growth. Therefore, global soybean supply and demand is more loose than the previous year. It is expected that the output of Brazil and Argentina in 2008/09 will be 62.5 million tons and 50.5 million tons. This data has not changed from the estimated valuation of last month. The output of the two soybeans has changed. Therefore, the current estimation value of South American soybean production is temporary

The reference can be referred to, and there are still variables. China's soybean output and import volume are expected to be 16.5 million tons and 36 million tons, respectively. The output estimation value is lower than the forecast of the China Grain and Oil Information Center, but China's soybean imports are expected to reach the level of USDA. Generally speaking, the soybean report of the US Department of Agriculture in October shows that global supply has increased significantly compared with last year, and the supply and demand conditions tended to relax.

The global financial crisis caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis at the same time has strengthened people's expectations for economic recession. As the financial crisis gradually spreads to the real economy, goods, including soybean demand, also It will inevitably be affected, and it will cause the demand for soybeans to decline.

2, the US dollar index

In financial institutions need to continuously purchase US dollars to supplement liquidity and the market's concerns about the decline of economies outside the United States In the next September, the US dollar index has taken amazing rising market since late September. The US dollar index rose sharply from 78.94 points in the month to 87.884 points, an increase of 10%, and reported to Changyang for the third consecutive month. The strong rising US dollar index has reduced the price of commodities at the US dollar price, which increases the sharp atmosphere of the commodity market. From the perspective of the US soybean market, the rise in the US dollar has also reduced the competitiveness of US soybean exports, which has a negative impact on the price of soybeans.

3, crude oil

The factors that affect the price trend of soybeans are also affected by the sharp decline in crude oil prices. Because people have recognized the non -renewability of petroleum, countries are seeking new energy to replace oil, and clean biomass energy has won the favor of people. Since 2006, international oil prices have risen significantly, the production scale of biomass energy has gradually expanded, and it has been extended to all cellulose plants. Due to this stimulation, vegetable oils have begun to transform to biological fuel, which has gradually deteriorated the global vegetable oil supply relationship, and then global vegetable oil Prices have to rise to alleviate the deterioration of supply and demand with price climbing. As one of the world's major vegetable oils, soybean oil has become inevitable. However, the minimum of international crude oil prices have fallen below the $ 50 integer mark from the high point of $ 147. Coupled with the sluggish automotive industry caused by economic recession, fuel demand has fallen rapidly, and soybean oil prices have declined. As a result, the price of soybeans also has the risk of continuing to fall.

4. The Chinese government introduced temporary collection and storage measures to support domestic soybean purchase prices

October is the season for soybean harvesting in Northeast production areas in my country. The price of international soybeans fell sharply, falling to the low point of the year, and the farmers' soybean planting income was threatened by losses. In order to ensure that farmers increase their yields and increase their income and promote food and agricultural production, the state has taken measures to stabilize agricultural production. On October 20, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement decision to implement a temporary collection and storage policy, and made every effort to organize the acquisition of major agricultural products. Among them, the policy for soybean products was: in the Northeast, the central reserves of soybeans were listed at the price of 1.85 yuan per city, that is, 3700 3700 Yuan/ton purchase soybean. The current soybean reserves are set to 1.5 million tons. The introduction of the national collection and storage policy has boosted the price of soybeans in the northeast production area, from a low of 3200 yuan/ton to 3700 yuan/ton, which has also led the futures price to rebound from a low level. Recently, the news that the state will store 100 tons of soybeans is sufficient to reflect the country's attention to agriculture. It is believed that the country's policy orientation will have a certain amount of benefits to the trend of soybeans.

The financial crisis erupted from the United States has now swept the world, and has spread to the entire real economy. It is still spreading deeper to the real economy. Various countries have also lowered economic growth expectations. At the same time, various currencies and fiscal methods have also prevented the decline of the economy, which is enough to reflect that the entire economy is very bad, so that future consumption demand will also fall.

The analysis of the external market environment, the long -term supply and demand status of the international soybean market, the cost comparison of cost, and the prospects of the domestic industry's demand, we believe that the soybean will maintain a shocking trend in the later period, but there is a certain certain agricultural product products to a certain amount The seasonality and demand rigidity, so the decline will not be great.

. The specific operation of the set of insurance

For the need for soybean to keep it worth the company, how to operate the hedging period, the operation of the hedging period:

1. For the application period preservation business, first of all, the brokerage member who opens an account will declare. After the brokerage member is reviewed, the brokerage member shall go through the application procedure to the exchange

2. Essence Corporation refers to the establishment of futures value preservation. The construction of the warehouse includes two aspects:

① value preservation ratio.

The value preservation ratio refers to the ratio between futures position and spot position. Under normal circumstances, 50%of the ratio can be considered as a foothold, and the proportion increase or decrease and adjustment can be carried out according to different market conditions. For example, for oil processing companies, when we expect soybean market markets to rise significantly, we can increase the proportion of packages to 80%, 100%or more. If we predict that soybean prices are likely to fall, then we can consider compressing the proportion of the package to 30%, 10%or even not to do futures. For companies that have just entered the futures market for hedging, considering insufficient experience, controlling the value preservation ratio at a lower level, such as building a 10 % -20 % position first.

② built positions.

In 100%setting the set of baranties as an example. It can be built at one time, or it can be built multiple times. Specifically, it can be flexibly handled according to the specific research on the development of the market.

4, when the delivery month, the position was closed.

The positioning includes two situations, including non -delivery and delivery, and the business operation is relatively simple. In the futures market, the last trading day or in advance; the delivery situation is You need to register the warehouse bill first, and the delivery date is for delivery.
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The professional analysts of Ruida Futures: QQ: 992957393