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  1. New policy of gold import and export, Tibetan Gold Yu people should depreciate the US dollar (1)

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    The news source: 215-12-30 9: 54: 44
    n December 20, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "central bank" ) The website of the "Administrative Measures for the Import and Export of Gold Products" was released on the website (hereinafter referred to as the "Draft of Opinions"). According to regulations, companies with registered capital can apply for import and export gold products with more than 30 million.

    "This is a prelude to the gold market further." Hou Huimin, vice chairman of the China Gold Association, believes that this will make more gold traders integrate into the international market and further integrate the domestic and international markets. However, at the same time, some observers noticed that the central bank's application for import and export will implement a "one batch", which is stricter than the previous approval system. Various signs show that behind the new policy of gold import and export, it is showing the subtle changes in regulatory views to the gold attribute view.

    ◆ Just "gold products"

    The attention is that the "Draft" limits it as "gold products". According to its regulations, gold products refer to gold jewelry, utensils and industrial gold products with more than 90%of the gold content (including 90%).

    The question is whether the above gold products include raw materials. The reporter recently called the Central Bank Currency and Silver Bureau, which is responsible for the matter. The relevant person in charge stated that it was inconvenient to be interviewed due to the phase of comments.

    The views of many industry experts, they believe that from the provisions of the "Draft of Opinions", the "gold products" should not include raw materials. The standard gold block of the transaction is not in this list.

    In Yang Yijun, chief golden analyst of Gao Sai Gold Silver Co., Ltd., internationally, the free import and export is not limited to gold products, but also raw material gold. From this perspective, "the central bank's idea is gradual."

    The Shanghai Gold Exchange was established in October 2002. As an important step in the marketization of China's gold industry since 1993, the institute has adopted a "centralized bidding" market -oriented distribution model for raw material gold to change the "unified purchase" model that has been implemented for many years.

    The so -called "unified purchase" refers to the uniform purchase and distribution of gold by the central bank on behalf of the country. That is, all the gold produced by the gold -produced enterprise must be sold to the central bank, and the use of gold required for the use of gold must be applied to the central bank, and the central bank will be uniformly allocated in accordance with the plan. The formal establishment of this system can be traced back to the first golden legislation regulations in New China in 1983 (hereinafter referred to as the "Regulations").

    The inevitable logic of "unified purchase", and about gold import and export, the "Regulations" also stipulates that the central bank is handled uniformly. Among them, both gold raw materials and gold products.

    and clearly stipulate that the latter is "uniformly acquired by the central bank for foreign trade exports." As an exception, in order to encourage the gold jewelry processing industry at that time, the "Regulations" and subsequent supporting regulations allow domestic processing trading companies to import gold raw materials from overseas and make product exports. However, the entire process must be jointly monitored by the central bank and customs.其程序是:加工贸易的黄金原料进口,需到当地央行进行备案,海关不予设限;加工贸易的黄金制品在出厂前,则必须由所在地央行先行检查产品所含黄金重量,核对合同,并Register one by one and issue the "Gold and Silver Product Export Public". Then the customs will be released with the central bank's license, otherwise it will not be exported.

    In 1988, the Central Bank and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued a notice to reiterate that "the imports of gold and silver must be approved by the central bank." So far, the gold and its product import and export control model under the planned model have basically formed. Manager Xu of Jiaxing Goldfan Products Gold and Silver Co., Ltd., a gold and silver jewelry processing enterprise affiliated to the Ministry of Light Industry, said that even the gold raw materials imported by the processing trade institute are actually included in the central bank's plan indicators. And the import and export of its products is completely under the monitoring of the central bank, the central bank is the only entry and export entity in the actual import and export. "This model lasted at least until 2003. During the period, although the domestic gold market was introduced into the market mechanism for the secondary, it did not fundamentally change in import and export.

    ◆ Gold import and export rights are decentralized

    In 2003, the four major state -owned commercial banks were approved by the central bank and the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Trade to obtain gold import and export rights. However, according to the "Notice of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on the issuance of gold import and export receipts and nuclear sales related issues" (Huifa [2003] No. 93), its import and export right must still be represented by the central bank.

    Previously, as early as 1998, in order to solve the shortage of gold raw materials in the Shenzhen market, the central bank of the central bank was approved by the head office in 1998 to cooperate with the Swiss Bank to conduct a gold consignment business, and began to explore and use the international market. Gold resources to meet the Gold demand in the domestic market.

    The so -called consignment business is that foreign commercial banks put their gold in the vaults of domestic commercial banks. The domestic banks are based on China's golden management policy, and according to the price of the international gold market, changes in exchange rate changes, etc. Factors determine the corresponding price and sell gold to the domestic gold jewelry processing enterprises. This is actually equivalent to gold imports.

    The introduction of the deputy president of the Shenzhen Branch of the Central Bank Shenzhen Branch at the then introduced by Xuejun in "Shenzhen Financial" (No. 2) in 2001. Implement on demand supply. This measure has greatly promoted the development of Shenzhen's gold jewelry processing industry.

    In October 2002, due to the establishment of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the consignment business carried out by the central bank's Shenzhen Branch also stopped due to the consideration of the unified market. However, as Yu Xuejun said in the above article, "China will face the reality of gold consumption than the supply in the near future and long -term, and it is necessary for the consignment business." Therefore, in 2003 The bank is carried out. At this point, foreign gold raw materials can use the four major national commercial banks of Taoism to land on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and enter the Chinese market.

    gold traders from the branch of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China confirmed that in addition to buying gold through the foreign market through the foreign market, they can also sell gold in the international market. In this way, the fact that the gold import rights were at least scattered to the four major commercial banks.

    At the same time, the import and export rights of gold products are also distributed to six companies including Chinese jewelry import and export companies. The export and export rights of gold and its products are gradually breaking by the central bank's exclusive control.

    The background that needs to be mentioned here. First, the market -oriented process of the gold industry that began in the late 1990s, and the other is the corresponding adjustment of China's foreign trade system after joining the WTO.

    In September 2004, the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said at a international precious metal forum in Shanghai that China's gold market is still a relatively closed market. There are three main problems. Gold cannot achieve one of the free imports and exports. The central bank will work for these issues in the next step. Five months before the speech, in April 2004, China revised the 10 -year "People's Republic of China to Foreign Trade Law". The implementation of a special foreign trade franchise pattern has been broken. The new law stipulates that as long as the legal person, other organizations or individuals who handle the industrial and commercial registration or other practice procedures in accordance with the law or other practice procedures go to the competent foreign trade department or its entrusted agency to apply for registration, that is, the import and export business can be handled. formalities.

    From this perspective, the "Draft of Opinions" stipulates that more than 30 million enterprises can apply for the import and export business of gold products. " The needs of "Zhang Bingnan, director of the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center. However, the opposite view also exists. Zhang Sateng, chief economic analyst of Yiche Finance, believes that there is no need to let go of gold import and export, and it doesn't make sense to let go.

    The explanation that first, because domestic gold prices have been in line with international gold prices. As a gold product processing enterprise, import and export gold raw materials are not beneficial. Enterprises can be purchased from the Gold Exchange. The second is the restrictions on the current foreign exchange system.

    This also holds similar views in Xuejun. He has publicly wrote that in the context of the opening of the gold market, the management of gold import and export should be implemented and the export policies should be implemented and exports should be implemented. He explained that managing gold exports can avoid the formation of gold import and export, back and forth, and the other can avoid the occurrence of escape and foreign exchange.

    If gold can be freely imported and exported, once the exchange rate changes or the inside and outside exchange is not consistent, you can use the gold import and export to make a profit from it. Therefore, when my country's capital projects have not achieved free exchanges, they should restrict gold free exports from the perspective of foreign exchange management. In fact, a state -owned commercial bank that currently carries out the gold import and export business currently undergoing a consignment method.

    According to its introduction, the gold consignment implements a model for each physical delivery. In terms of settlement, in China, commercial banks and gold jewelry companies settle RMB in RMB, and abroad, with foreign exchange settlement with banks supplied to gold. "Every time you do a business, you must go to the Foreign Management Bureau to approve it." The above -mentioned gold traders emphasized. "Obviously, letting go of gold import and export does not have real conditions." Zhang Bingnan said.

    The industry insiders also pointed out that although theoretically, gold imports and exports can be handed over to ordinary industrial enterprises, but in reality, it is mainly operated by commercial banks. This is because compared with industrial enterprises as general assets, commercial banks mainly use it as financial assets to operate. To achieve comprehensive income.

    The new policy of gold import and export to the people should be depreciated by the US dollar (2)

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    The news source: 215-12-30 9: 55: 31
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    In addition to the" gold products ", the" Draft of the Opinion "also clearly mentioned that the management model of" one batch of things "will be implemented.

    The "Draft of Opinions" stipulates that the central bank's branches will apply for the acceptance institution and approval agency, and will be reviewed in accordance with the principle of a batch. For qualified, the approval authority will apply for the import and export permit for it in accordance with the law. The applicant will go to the customs to go through the import and export procedures within 15 working days according to this.

    "From the perspective of regulations, the central bank seems to take power again." Liu Tao, Secretary -General of the Qualification Review Committee of the Gold Investment Analyst, told reporters on December 26.

    It is understood that the Central Bank and Customs General Administration jointly announced on December 22, 2003. The announcement stipulates that "From January 1, 2004, the processing trade of gold and its products will be exported and exported, and the People's Bank of China will no longer be approved. If the product is approved by domestic sales, it is still managed in accordance with the general trade import. It is still approved by the People's Bank of China. , That is, the so -called "two ends outside". The raw materials come from abroad, and the gold products processed into the end are also sold abroad. Domestic processing trade companies earn intermediate processing fees. In fact, for many years, the import and export of processing trade has occupied the absolute proportion of gold products import and export.

    The Guangdong Customs with the largest import and export volume of gold products as an example. Statistics from January to November this year show that a total of 6.7 tons of gold products imported from Guangdong Port, worth $ 53.62 million. Among them, the imported gold jewelry was 6.6 tons, accounting for 98.5%of the total imports. During the same period, the Guangdong Port exported gold products of 1.36.9 tons, worth 1.34 billion US dollars. Among them, the processing trade method exported 136.8 tons of gold products, accounting for 99.9%of the total exports. Therefore, if the import and export business of the gold products is implemented "one batch", then the central bank's intention will be recovered again in 2004.

    The people familiar with the matter revealed that the main reason for this is that local customs and local central banks have different differences when they implement the above announcement. "The regulations have not been implemented."

    This senior person in the industry also said that although the domestic gold production has been increasing in the past two years, the use of gold companies has not obviously felt the increase in the number of gold available in the exchange. In fact, a considerable number of gold is trading through private channels. A considerable part of the form of processing trade flows abroad. "From the 6th of the" Draft of Opinions ", the intention of the central bank's key specifications of exports is obvious." Wu Hongyue, managing director of Guangxi Guijingui Metal Co., Ltd., pointed out.

    The last paragraph of the "Draft of Opinions" stipulates: exported gold products, in addition to submitting written application reports, "Business Law Business License", "Registration Form for Foreign Trade Operators", Gold Products Entry In addition to export contracts and other materials, they must also submit sales invoices and VAT invoices for gold raw materials.

    In the central bank has let go of import and export rights, and strengthen supervision. In some market analysts, the central bank is release the signal of the "Tibetan Gold" to the outside world.

    In it is understood that gold reserves and foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange reserves and the special withdrawal rights in the International Monetary Fund jointly form a country's international reserve, which bears the function of resisting international financial risks.

    Printer statistical data show that the average gold reserves of central banks in various countries are about 9 % of reserve assets, more than 25 % in the European Union, and about 60 % in the United States. According to data from the end of June 2005 by the central bank's central bank, the proportion of gold reserves accounted for only 1.2 % of my country's total reserve assets, totaling 600 tons.

    In recent international gold prices and the depreciation of the US dollar, especially after the reform of the RMB exchange rate, the voices of adding gold reserves in national reserve assets are gradually rising.

    This satellite writing pointed out that low gold reserves are not conducive to our international financial turmoil in the wind and clouds, which is not conducive to the problems of the US economy and the US dollar problem. The status.

    The so -called "Tibetan Gold in the People" means that while increasing the official reserves, it has opened folk gold investment and gold consumption, which is raised as an idea. The examples often cited by supporters are the experience of Southeast Asian countries' resistance to the financial crisis since 1997. At that time, the gold of personal investment and storage of residents became an important reserve for the state to deal with international politics and economic risks.

    The latest survey statistics show that there are about 4,000 tons of folk gold reserves in my country, plus about 600 tons of central reserves, and the per capita consumption is only 0.35 grams. Although it has doubled compared with 0.16 grams in 2002, compared with the annual consumption of international per capita, it is much lower.

    The observers have let the release and export right of gold products as a signal of the national intent "Tibetan gold". To open more import and export channels, it can form a good interaction with the policy of encouraging gold consumption and investment, expand the scale of the domestic gold consumer market, and increase the gold reserves of the people.

    Prior to, because only six companies approved have the import and export right of gold products, if other companies import and export gold products, they can only entrust these six companies to make it, and the gold products are invisibly increased. Import costs lack the channels of international markets, and it is not conducive to enterprises to become bigger and stronger.

    In this "Draft", the primary gold product is gold jewelry, which undoubtedly provides room for imagination for the above logic. However, as Zhang Satellite's research pointed out, my country's gold consumption structure focuses on jewelry gold, and the use of gold with gold cannot be regarded as real investment. rnrn据张分析,如果投资者真的要把黄金首饰卖出去,至少要损失15%,因为从黄金到黄金首饰增加了诸如加工费、消费税费、黄金损耗、 Various high intermediate costs such as sales costs, jewelry dealers' profits.

    "Tibetan gold‘ Tibetan gold in the people ’through jewelry is actually a depreciation behavior.” Zhang Satellite said. He believes that the key to Tibetan gold is to broaden the current gold investment channels and attract more people to participate in gold investment.

    The fact that cannot be ignored is that because of the laws and regulations on gold investment, the gold repurchase channels are still not smooth. With the current folk gold theory, about 90 % still cannot enter the field of circulation.

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